Dataloft's central (main case) outlook scenario for house prices is of a market slowdown and mild pr
Dataloft's central (main case) outlook scenario for house prices is of a market slowdown and mild price falls. Lower transaction volumes but better than suggested by recent low mortgage approvals data.
- There are reasons to be positive about the housing market and the outlook has improved since Liz Truss stepped down. The interest rate market is calmer, employment remains strong and Government policy favours home ownership.
- Potential pressures to watch are weaker economic growth; a new norm of higher interest rates; weak consumer and investor confidence; worsening or prolonged cost of living crisis and a lack of first-time buyers.
- Markets that could outperform include those that are more affordable. Less likely is the first-time buyer sector, markets which have seen significant increases recently (second homes and the commuter belt) and buy-to-let markets.
- The latest Dataloft subscriber poll revealed that most agents (80%) are expecting a similar outlook– for sales prices to remain stable or to only fall by up to 5%. Source: Dataloft January 2023